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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

4

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$664.4

Combined PnL

$65.5

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$70.98

Up2 traders

Total Value$38.58

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$5.47

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$512.39	$500	-$5.4	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$252.7	—	-$252.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$254.6	$500	+$247.3
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$185.44	$125.82	-$59.62	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$81.15	—	-$81.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.9¢	$104.29	$125.82	+$21.53
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 1.2¢	$37.69	—	+$72.63	41% 1393-1983 (3376)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$59.77	$25.63	-$6.9	54% 2104-1796 (3900)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 89¢	$11.53	$12.95	+$1.42	60% 3365-2262 (5627)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 4.7¢	$1.65	—	-$1.65	58% 3492-2495 (5987)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$512.39

Value

$500

PnL

-$5.4

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$252.750¢-$252.7

Up$254.650.9¢+$247.3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$185.44

Value

$125.82

PnL

-$59.62

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

Both legs:

Down$81.1563.3¢-$81.15

Up$104.2982.9¢+$21.53

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$37.69

Value

—

PnL

+$72.63

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

Invested

$59.77

Value

$25.63

PnL

-$6.9

Record

54%

2104-1796 (3900)

Invested

$11.53

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$1.42

Record

60%

3365-2262 (5627)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

—

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

3492-2495 (5987)

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5f63226f...423ed9

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794638700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $25.63

aaa221

Up — $12.95

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

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