Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (56%) · Down at 100¢ · $837 held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

Total Value

$836.85

Combined PnL

$32.68

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$832.39

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$63.14

Up4 traders

Total Value$4.45

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$30.46

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.4¢	$507.27	$498.5	+$4.93	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71¢	$196.77	$245.42	+$48.65	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$31.22	$32.73	+$1.51	54% 2087-1785 (3872)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$35.74	$30.86	+$0.18	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 68¢	$17	$24.88	+$7.88	48% 1860-2039 (3899)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$4.21	$4.34	+$0.13	38% 1240-2064 (3304)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$2.64	$0.06	-$2.58	41% 1381-1964 (3345)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 24.1¢	$24.92	$0.05	-$24.87	58% 3466-2465 (5931)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$3.15	$0.01	-$3.14	47% 1925-2172 (4097)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$507.27

Value

$498.5

PnL

+$4.93

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$196.77

Value

$245.42

PnL

+$48.65

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.22

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$1.51

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$35.74

Value

$30.86

PnL

+$0.18

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$17

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$7.88

Record

48%

1860-2039 (3899)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0.13

Record

38%

1240-2064 (3304)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.58

Record

41%

1381-1964 (3345)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$24.92

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$24.87

Record

58%

3466-2465 (5931)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.14

Record

47%

1925-2172 (4097)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.