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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 31%

Total Value

$857.41

Combined PnL

-$949.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,536

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down10 traders

Total Value$857.41

Total Shares857

Combined PnL+$485.25

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 60.8¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.6¢	$524.22	—	-$490.14	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 44.9¢	$179.23	$399.36	+$220.13	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 41.7¢	$133.42	$171.06	+$42.89	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 25¢	$21.22	$60	+$38.78	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 29.3¢	$41.01	$139.99	+$98.97	48% 1324-1417 (2741)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 22¢	$9	$30	+$21	50% 1219-1216 (2435)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 68¢	$15.63	$21	+$5.37	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 42¢	$11.25	$15	+$3.75	47% 1892-2135 (4027)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 19¢	$2.85	$15	+$12.15	48% 1833-1999 (3832)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 42¢	$2.52	$6	+$3.48	47% 1854-2076 (3930)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 40.6¢	$248.2	—	+$101.1	41% 1336-1928 (3264)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$22.16	$0.01	+$38.73	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	50% 2202-2243 (4445)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$45.84	—	-$26.45	60% 3298-2213 (5511)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$1,018.25

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$524.22

Value

—

PnL

-$490.14

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$179.23

Value

$399.36

PnL

+$220.13

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

Invested

$133.42

Value

$171.06

PnL

+$42.89

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

Invested

$21.22

Value

$60

PnL

+$38.78

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$41.01

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$98.97

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

Invested

$9

Value

$30

PnL

+$21

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$15.63

Value

$21

PnL

+$5.37

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$15

PnL

+$3.75

Record

47%

1892-2135 (4027)

Invested

$2.85

Value

$15

PnL

+$12.15

Record

48%

1833-1999 (3832)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$6

PnL

+$3.48

Record

47%

1854-2076 (3930)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$248.2

Value

—

PnL

+$101.1

Record

41%

1336-1928 (3264)

Invested

$22.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$38.73

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

2202-2243 (4445)

Invested

$45.84

Value

—

PnL

-$26.45

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x81b8f7eb...7dd948

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794627900

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $399.36

ply-pm2

Down — $171.06

mo-money

Down — $60

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $139.99

almach

Down — $30

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $21

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

ohioism

Down — $15

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