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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$586.79

Combined PnL

-$457.39

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares985

Combined PnL-$517.22

Down6 traders

Total Value$251.33

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$59.82

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.8¢	$512.39	—	-$482.97	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$277.92	$335.46	+$57.53	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.1¢	$80.99	$335.46	+$254.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.9¢	$196.94	—	-$196.94
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 66.9¢	$123.85	$96.89	-$26.95	54% 1831-1588 (3419)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 99¢	$36.63	$37	+$0.37	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$16.73	$84	+$67.27	47% 1170-1297 (2467)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 10¢	$1.5	$15	+$13.5	47% 1647-1881 (3528)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77¢	$12.24	$15.9	+$3.66	60% 3027-2022 (5049)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 22¢	$0.56	$2.54	+$1.98	47% 1686-1913 (3599)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 2.6¢	$9.48	—	-$9.48	49% 1967-2021 (3988)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 24.6¢	$22.67	—	-$22.67	59% 3281-2298 (5579)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$2.1	—	-$2.1	48% 1655-1778 (3433)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$512.39

Value

—

PnL

-$482.97

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$277.92

Value

$335.46

PnL

+$57.53

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

Both legs:

Down$80.9924.1¢+$254.47

Up$196.9474.9¢-$196.94

Invested

$123.85

Value

$96.89

PnL

-$26.95

Record

54%

1831-1588 (3419)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$36.63

Value

$37

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$16.73

Value

$84

PnL

+$67.27

Record

47%

1170-1297 (2467)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$15

PnL

+$13.5

Record

47%

1647-1881 (3528)

Invested

$12.24

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$3.66

Record

60%

3027-2022 (5049)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

1686-1913 (3599)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

—

PnL

-$9.48

Record

49%

1967-2021 (3988)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$22.67

Value

—

PnL

-$22.67

Record

59%

3281-2298 (5579)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

—

PnL

-$2.1

Record

48%

1655-1778 (3433)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe6a31f3f...fe998c

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794586500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $96.89

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $37

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $84

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $15

aaa221

Down — $15.9

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $2.54

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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