Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$997.35

Combined PnL

$0.81

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$52.18

Total Shares52

Combined PnL+$13.76

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$12.95

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$349.86	$346.02	-$3.85	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$208.38	$346.02	+$137.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$141.49	—	-$141.49
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$181.86	$99.15	-$51.27	54% 1677-1430 (3107)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$76.27	—	-$81.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$55.39	$99.15	+$30.04
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$26.24	$32.74	+$6.5	38% 927-1543 (2470)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 16.3¢	$5.89	—	-$5.89	47% 975-1099 (2074)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$6.8	$10	+$3.2	47% 1411-1608 (3019)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.38	$9.44	+$4.06	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$3.48	—	-$3.48	37% 716-1225 (1941)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$0.89	—	-$0.89	48% 1242-1341 (2583)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 17.5¢	$5.25	—	-$0	59% 3010-2084 (5094)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$2.7	—	-$2.7	44% 1371-1749 (3120)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$25050¢-$250

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$349.86

Value

$346.02

PnL

-$3.85

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Down$208.3860.2¢+$137.64

Up$141.4945.2¢-$141.49

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$181.86

Value

$99.15

PnL

-$51.27

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

Both legs:

Up$76.2744.5¢-$81.32

Down$55.3955.9¢+$30.04

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$26.24

Value

$32.74

PnL

+$6.5

Record

38%

927-1543 (2470)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$5.89

Value

—

PnL

-$5.89

Record

47%

975-1099 (2074)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.2

Record

47%

1411-1608 (3019)

Invested

$5.38

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$4.06

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

—

PnL

-$3.48

Record

37%

716-1225 (1941)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

—

PnL

-$0.89

Record

48%

1242-1341 (2583)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3010-2084 (5094)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

—

PnL

-$2.7

Record

44%

1371-1749 (3120)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x17125c1a...8a4a0f

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794519000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $32.74

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $10

aaa221

Down — $9.44

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket