Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$574.43
$7.04
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$2.2 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.8 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $31.65 | $43.78 | +$12.13 | 54% 1637-1402 (3039) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $21.85 | $25 | +$3.15 | 50% 1923-1911 (3834) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 59% 2981-2065 (5046) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4.52 | $5.65 | +$1.13 | 60% 2481-1663 (4144) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 14.5¢ | $5.37 | — | -$5.37 | 37% 679-1149 (1828) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.2
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.65
Value
$43.78
PnL
+$12.13
Record
54%
1637-1402 (3039)
Invested
$21.85
Value
$25
PnL
+$3.15
Record
50%
1923-1911 (3834)
Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
59%
2981-2065 (5046)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$1.13
Record
60%
2481-1663 (4144)
Invested
$5.37
Value
—
PnL
-$5.37
Record
37%
679-1149 (1828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $43.78
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $25
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $5.65
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0