Solana Up or Down - November 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$118.94

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$115.54

Up3 traders

Total Value$0.62

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$3.39

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 93.2¢	$838.73	$899.55	+$60.82	37% 598-1014 (1612)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$493	-$7	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.8¢	$339.3	$382.77	+$43.48	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 85.8¢	$141.9	$154.76	+$12.86	51% 1179-1131 (2310)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 84.7¢	$30.38	$35.3	+$4.91	47% 809-896 (1705)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 87.2¢	$14.94	$16.87	+$1.93	46% 1190-1388 (2578)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$6.47	$5.02	-$1.45	47% 1384-1531 (2915)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$2.4	$0.32	-$2.08	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 11.8¢	$26.54	$0.28	+$7.56	53% 1476-1292 (2768)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 8.4¢	$2.1	$0.01	-$2.09	59% 2910-2008 (4918)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$838.73

Value

$899.55

PnL

+$60.82

Record

37%

598-1014 (1612)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$493

PnL

-$7

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$339.3

Value

$382.77

PnL

+$43.48

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$141.9

Value

$154.76

PnL

+$12.86

Record

51%

1179-1131 (2310)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$30.38

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$4.91

Record

47%

809-896 (1705)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$14.94

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$1.93

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$6.47

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

1384-1531 (2915)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$2.08

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$26.54

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$7.56

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.09

Record

59%

2910-2008 (4918)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.