Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $777 held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

Total Value

$776.53

Combined PnL

$2.52

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$555.89

Total Shares640

Combined PnL-$2.19

Down3 traders

Total Value$220.64

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$4.71

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 98¢	$205.8	$208.95	+$3.15	37% 585-985 (1570)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$20.6	$21.53	+$0.92	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 22.1¢	$15.35	$15.13	-$0.22	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 80¢	$8	$9.98	+$1.98	48% 1183-1263 (2446)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$7.77	$8.44	+$0.68	48% 1079-1166 (2245)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$8.71	$6.29	-$2.41	59% 2906-2005 (4911)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$4.05	$2.85	-$1.2	44% 1174-1476 (2650)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62¢	$2.12	$1.71	-$0.41	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.61	$1.65	+$0.04	50% 1101-1104 (2205)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$205.8

Value

$208.95

PnL

+$3.15

Record

37%

585-985 (1570)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$20.6

Value

$21.53

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$15.13

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$1.98

Record

48%

1183-1263 (2446)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$8.44

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

1079-1166 (2245)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$2.41

Record

59%

2906-2005 (4911)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$1.2

Record

44%

1174-1476 (2650)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$2.12

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.41

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1101-1104 (2205)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8032.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.