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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$539.6
Combined PnL
-$11.41
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares42
Combined PnL-$21.61
Up2 traders
Total Value$39.6
Total Shares40
Combined PnL+$10.2
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $509.5 | $500 | +$1 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $249.51 | — | -$249.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250.5 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $18.75 | — | -$18.75 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $32.19 | $30.01 | +$7.81 | 53% 1371-1214 (2585) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $7.19 | $9.59 | +$2.4 | 60% 2106-1411 (3517) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $15.86 | — | -$2.86 | 60% 2827-1912 (4739) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$509.5
Value
$500
PnL
+$1
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Both legs:
Down$249.5149.9¢-$249.5
Up$25050¢+$250.5
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$18.75
Value
—
PnL
-$18.75
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$32.19
Value
$30.01
PnL
+$7.81
Record
53%
1371-1214 (2585)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$7.19
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$2.4
Record
60%
2106-1411 (3517)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$15.86
Value
—
PnL
-$2.86
Record
60%
2827-1912 (4739)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xef80e3f2...6d9d87
Slug
sol-updown-15m-1794461400