Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$560.43

Combined PnL

-$60.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$60.43

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$12

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$72.97

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$2.3	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	—	-$247.7
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$38.49	$47.86	+$10.86	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 20.4¢	$35.1	—	-$35.1	51% 1582-1533 (3115)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$19.37	—	-$19.37	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 62¢	$7.63	$7.57	-$0.06	37% 737-1242 (1979)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 76¢	$3.8	$5	+$1.2	55% 1115-909 (2024)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 4.5¢	$0.55	—	-$0.55	38% 560-911 (1471)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 35.9¢	$17.95	—	-$17.95	60% 2757-1855 (4612)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.3

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$250

Down$24550¢-$247.7

Invested

$38.49

Value

$47.86

PnL

+$10.86

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$35.1

Value

—

PnL

-$35.1

Record

51%

1582-1533 (3115)

Invested

$19.37

Value

—

PnL

-$19.37

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

737-1242 (1979)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

55%

1115-909 (2024)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

—

PnL

-$0.55

Record

38%

560-911 (1471)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$17.95

Value

—

PnL

-$17.95

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc1198af5...8d2fff

Slug

sol-updown-15m-1794455100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Up — $47.86

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $7.57

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket