Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (82%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (43%) · Up at 19¢ · $567 held · ends Nov 12

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 43%

Total Value

$566.65

Combined PnL

-$3.51

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 18.5¢

-62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$505.56

Total Shares519

Combined PnL+$1.49

Down4 traders

Total Value$61.09

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$5

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	58% 2058-1520 (3578)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$48.95	$43.18	-$5.77	53% 1273-1127 (2400)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.78	$8.1	-$0.68	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$7.16	$7.3	+$0.15	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 28.4¢	$9.46	$3.1	+$1.45	50% 1323-1316 (2639)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 24¢	$1.2	$2.5	+$1.3	38% 468-754 (1222)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.42	$2.46	+$0.04	49% 786-802 (1588)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

2058-1520 (3578)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$48.95

Value

$43.18

PnL

-$5.77

Record

53%

1273-1127 (2400)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$8.78

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.68

Record

60%

2627-1728 (4355)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$1.45

Record

50%

1323-1316 (2639)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

38%

468-754 (1222)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

786-802 (1588)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$385.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

485.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.