Solana Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Up85¢Down15¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$98.36

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 84.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up85%

Down16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$974.44

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL-$48.58

Down5 traders

Total Value$113.02

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$49.78

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76.4¢	$660.88	$567.04	-$86.55	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 83¢	$369.43	$407.4	+$37.97	37% 435-728 (1163)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$51.32	$38.81	-$12.51	49% 706-726 (1432)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$24.79	$26.31	+$1.52	48% 950-1050 (2000)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$32.2	$25.5	-$6.7	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 41.6¢	$49.9	$17.4	-$32.5	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	58% 1948-1427 (3375)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$660.88

Value

$567.04

PnL

-$86.55

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$369.43

Value

$407.4

PnL

+$37.97

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.32

Value

$38.81

PnL

-$12.51

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.79

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.2

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$6.7

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.9

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$32.5

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.