Solana Up or Down - November 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $856 held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

Total Value

$855.68

Combined PnL

$106.22

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$852.68

Total Shares871

Combined PnL+$106.34

Up1 trader

Total Value$3

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.12

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 97.4¢	$574.9	$589.71	+$14.8	37% 422-726 (1148)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 45.5¢	$77.63	$131.8	+$54.17	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$57	$77.69	+$20.69	49% 683-704 (1387)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$18.7	$26.62	+$7.92	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$15.34	$23.86	+$8.52	60% 2590-1698 (4288)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.76	$3	+$0.24	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$3.12	$3	-$0.12	48% 937-1035 (1972)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$574.9

Value

$589.71

PnL

+$14.8

Record

37%

422-726 (1148)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$77.63

Value

$131.8

PnL

+$54.17

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$57

Value

$77.69

PnL

+$20.69

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$18.7

Value

$26.62

PnL

+$7.92

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$15.34

Value

$23.86

PnL

+$8.52

Record

60%

2590-1698 (4288)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$2.76

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.