Solana Up or Down - November 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 100¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$351.34
-$109.69
82¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $258.6 | $240.05 | -$18.55 | 50% 1247-1236 (2483) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $81.53 | $73.89 | -$7.64 | 53% 1194-1050 (2244) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $45.75 | $32.02 | -$12.47 | 49% 683-704 (1387) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $54.78 | $5.34 | -$47.94 | 37% 422-726 (1148) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $23.14 | $0.04 | -$23.1 | 60% 2590-1698 (4288) |
Invested
$258.6
Value
$240.05
PnL
-$18.55
Record
50%
1247-1236 (2483)
Invested
$81.53
Value
$73.89
PnL
-$7.64
Record
53%
1194-1050 (2244)
Invested
$45.75
Value
$32.02
PnL
-$12.47
Record
49%
683-704 (1387)
Invested
$54.78
Value
$5.34
PnL
-$47.94
Record
37%
422-726 (1148)
Invested
$23.14
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$23.1
Record
60%
2590-1698 (4288)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.