Solana Up or Down - November 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (22%) · Down at 100¢ · $415 held · ended Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 22%

Total Value

$415.41

Combined PnL

-$188.99

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$373.83

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$150.59

Up7 traders

Total Value$41.58

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$38.4

Down — 22%Up — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 89.7¢	$439.89	$299.02	-$140.87	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$84.53	$74.81	-$9.72	53% 1050-932 (1982)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 13.3¢	$13.69	$30.41	+$16.72	61% 2536-1645 (4181)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$28.44	$7.12	-$21.32	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$7.12	$1.74	-$5.38	46% 809-946 (1755)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.9	$1.05	-$1.85	44% 821-1039 (1860)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$13.8	$0.77	-$7.37	58% 1663-1228 (2891)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 20.1¢	$17.9	$0.45	-$17.46	37% 374-624 (998)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.8	$0.05	-$1.75	48% 838-904 (1742)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$439.89

Value

$299.02

PnL

-$140.87

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$84.53

Value

$74.81

PnL

-$9.72

Record

53%

1050-932 (1982)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$13.69

Value

$30.41

PnL

+$16.72

Record

61%

2536-1645 (4181)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$28.44

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$21.32

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$5.38

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.85

Record

44%

821-1039 (1860)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$7.37

Record

58%

1663-1228 (2891)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$17.9

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$17.46

Record

37%

374-624 (998)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

838-904 (1742)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.