Solana Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (82%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$64.63

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$78.65

Down2 traders

Total Value$2.15

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$14.02

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 52.3¢	$414.51	$540.12	+$125.62	51% 1009-957 (1966)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 95.9¢	$282.7	$224.1	-$58.6	61% 2518-1634 (4152)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$94.05	$94.48	+$0.43	98% 1544-32 (1576)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$40.59	$49.93	+$9.33	53% 1020-898 (1918)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 92¢	$27.6	$28.65	+$1.05	45% 507-626 (1133)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 91¢	$27.3	$28.65	+$1.35	45% 515-642 (1157)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 91¢	$27.3	$28.65	+$1.35	50% 3738-3764 (7502)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 60¢	$9	$7.5	-$1.5	44% 798-998 (1796)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 44¢	$4.78	$4.4	-$0.38	39% 586-930 (1516)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$1.96	$2	+$0.04	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 4.7¢	$14.21	$0.15	-$14.06	38% 369-603 (972)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$414.51

Value

$540.12

PnL

+$125.62

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$282.7

Value

$224.1

PnL

-$58.6

Record

61%

2518-1634 (4152)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$94.05

Value

$94.48

PnL

+$0.43

Record

98%

1544-32 (1576)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$49.93

PnL

+$9.33

Record

53%

1020-898 (1918)

almach<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$1.05

Record

45%

507-626 (1133)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$1.35

Record

45%

515-642 (1157)

bosona<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

3738-3764 (7502)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

44%

798-998 (1796)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.38

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.96

Value

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.21

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$14.06

Record

38%

369-603 (972)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.