Solana Up or Down - November 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$40.09

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,527

Combined PnL+$77.32

Down1 trader

Total Value$66.53

Total Shares765

Combined PnL-$37.23

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.52	45% 449-558 (1007)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 82.5¢	$329.93	$399.8	+$69.87	61% 2482-1593 (4075)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 6.9¢	$103.77	$66.53	-$37.23	51% 933-914 (1847)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 98.7¢	$36.63	$37.08	+$0.45	46% 758-894 (1652)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$23.49	$29.65	+$6.16	53% 969-866 (1835)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$2.87	$3.04	+$0.16	48% 1257-1350 (2607)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.65	$2.82	+$0.17	58% 1531-1106 (2637)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,041.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.52

Record

45%

449-558 (1007)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$329.93

Value

$399.8

PnL

+$69.87

Record

61%

2482-1593 (4075)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$103.77

Value

$66.53

PnL

-$37.23

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$36.63

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$0.45

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$23.49

Value

$29.65

PnL

+$6.16

Record

53%

969-866 (1835)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

1257-1350 (2607)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

1531-1106 (2637)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.