Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $175 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$174.59

Combined PnL

-$74.37

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$131.99

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$26.94

Down4 traders

Total Value$42.6

Total Shares377

Combined PnL-$101.3

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$60.81	$88.74	+$27.94	51% 10700-10150 (20850)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 88.5¢	$44.25	$43.25	-$1	56% 77586-59890 (137476)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 36.7¢	$123.85	$20.27	-$103.59	58% 3217-2317 (5534)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$9.43	$9.33	-$0.1	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$7.68	$8	+$0.32	58% 39891-28840 (68731)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$2.94	$5	+$2.06	58% 63445-46638 (110083)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$60.81

Value

$88.74

PnL

+$27.94

Record

51%

10700-10150 (20850)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$44.25

Value

$43.25

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

77586-59890 (137476)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$123.85

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$103.59

Record

58%

3217-2317 (5534)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

39891-28840 (68731)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.94

Value

PnL

+$2.06

Record

58%

63445-46638 (110083)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.