SHL: Luleå vs. Färjestad

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Luleå (80%) · Luleå at 74¢ · $772 held · ended Nov 14

Luleå74¢Färjestad26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luleå

Consensus Traders

Luleå 80%

Total Value

$772.48

Combined PnL

-$4.28

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 73.5¢

+74% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuleå at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luleå

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luleå74%

Färjestad27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luleå8 traders

Total Value$710.31

Total Shares1,410

Combined PnL+$86.96

Färjestad2 traders

Total Value$62.17

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$91.24

Luleå — 80%Färjestad — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Luleå. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLuleå 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuleå 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Luleå 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Luleåavg 58.2¢	$148.45	$186.15	+$37.7	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
TO topdogbigboi	Luleåavg 38.3¢	$92.32	$173.21	+$80.89	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
VeryLucky888	Luleåavg 33.7¢	$197.64	$169.57	-$9.98	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Luleåavg 37.5¢	$96.64	$82.44	-$14.2	48% 293-321 (614)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Färjestadavg 60.7¢	$153.09	$61.26	-$91.83	46% 497-591 (1088)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Luleåavg 67.4¢	$60.7	$52.7	-$8	83% 729-152 (881)
CI cigarettes<$100	Luleåavg 70¢	$35	$36.5	+$1.5	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
MA MadridTime<$100	Luleåavg 37¢	$6.08	$5.26	-$0.82	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Luleåavg 33¢	$4.63	$4.49	-$0.14	36% 455-810 (1265)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Färjestadavg 24¢	$0.32	$0.91	+$0.59	34% 370-708 (1078)

Flaznorp

Luleå

Invested

$148.45

Value

$186.15

PnL

+$37.7

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

topdogbigboi

Luleå

Invested

$92.32

Value

$173.21

PnL

+$80.89

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

VeryLucky888

Luleå

Invested

$197.64

Value

$169.57

PnL

-$9.98

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Luleå

Invested

$96.64

Value

$82.44

PnL

-$14.2

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Färjestad

Invested

$153.09

Value

$61.26

PnL

-$91.83

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Luleå

Invested

$60.7

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$8

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

cigarettes<$100

Luleå

Invested

$35

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

MadridTime<$100

Luleå

Invested

$6.08

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$0.82

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LuckyLoo<$100

Luleå

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.14

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Färjestad

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.59

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

Research grade

NeutralLuleå at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luleå

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Luleå. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLuleå 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuleå 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Luleå 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luleå wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.