Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Skellefteå, while the market favors Brynäs (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SHL: Brynäs vs. Skellefteå
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Skellefteå (63%) · Skellefteå at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Skellefteå
8
Skellefteå 63%
$1.2K
-$39.61
36.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSkellefteå at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Brynäs 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpCTR | Skellefteåavg 50¢ | $525 | $523.84 | -$1.16 | 54% 475-399 (874) |
DR Dreamwire | Brynäsavg 99.9¢ | $409.29 | $409.5 | +$0.2 | 58% 102-75 (177) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Skellefteåavg 24.1¢ | $314.93 | $148.15 | -$32.48 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Brynäsavg 53.7¢ | $74.52 | $84.12 | +$9.59 | 36% 548-955 (1503) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Brynäsavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $4.25 | +$0.3 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Skellefteåavg 52.6¢ | $30.09 | $3.78 | -$8.72 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Skellefteåavg 34.8¢ | $7.05 | $3 | -$4.06 | 27% 185-494 (679) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Skellefteåavg 36.7¢ | $5.5 | $2.22 | -$3.28 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
Invested
$525
Value
$523.84
PnL
-$1.16
Record
54%
475-399 (874)
Invested
$409.29
Value
$409.5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
102-75 (177)
Invested
$314.93
Value
$148.15
PnL
-$32.48
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$74.52
Value
$84.12
PnL
+$9.59
Record
36%
548-955 (1503)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$0.3
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.09
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$8.72
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$3
PnL
-$4.06
Record
27%
185-494 (679)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$2.22
PnL
-$3.28
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.