Shapiro's Democratic nomination odds hit 8% by December 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.9K
$159.99
67¢ → 78¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 65.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$251.33 | — 5-1 (6) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 80.2¢ | $187.63 | $170.94 | -$16.68 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $112.2 | $72.6 | -$39.6 | — 1-18 (19) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $55.3 | $33.79 | -$21.51 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $42.9 | $28.6 | -$14.3 | 23% 511-1693 (2204) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $1.65 | +$0.75 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
viniiInvested
$1,316.63
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$251.33
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$187.63
Value
$170.94
PnL
-$16.68
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
Invested
$112.2
Value
$72.6
PnL
-$39.6
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$55.3
Value
$33.79
PnL
-$21.51
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$28.6
PnL
-$14.3
Record
23%
511-1693 (2204)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.75
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.