Will Vado FC win on 2026-11-15?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$2.8K
-$24.46
97¢ → 99.2¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$18.72 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$11.6 | 47% 1186-1362 (2548) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 94¢ | $217.68 | $226.94 | +$9.26 | 38% 1318-2168 (3486) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $67.2 | $70.06 | +$2.86 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $59.38 | $61.9 | +$2.53 | 56% 651-514 (1165) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $47.1 | $47.98 | +$0.87 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $47.77 | $19.38 | -$28.39 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $14.6 | $14.76 | +$0.16 | 38% 1342-2205 (3547) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $4.47 | $1.49 | -$2.98 | 41% 1175-1673 (2848) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $21.64 | $0.08 | -$1.54 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.11 | $0.01 | -$0.1 | 54% 6017-5091 (11108) |
Invested
$1,337.96
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$18.72
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$1,031.24
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.6
Record
47%
1186-1362 (2548)
Invested
$217.68
Value
$226.94
PnL
+$9.26
Record
38%
1318-2168 (3486)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$70.06
PnL
+$2.86
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
Invested
$59.38
Value
$61.9
PnL
+$2.53
Record
56%
651-514 (1165)
Invested
$47.1
Value
$47.98
PnL
+$0.87
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
Invested
$47.77
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$28.39
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$0.16
Record
38%
1342-2205 (3547)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$1.49
PnL
-$2.98
Record
41%
1175-1673 (2848)
Invested
$21.64
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.54
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
6017-5091 (11108)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.