Will Spezia Calcio win on 2026-11-15?
4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
13
Yes 31%
$1.1K
$28.54
73.6¢ → 68.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $716.89 | $734.92 | +$18.03 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 28¢ | $111.31 | $125.22 | +$13.91 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $79.6 | $79.6 | +$0 | 38% 1338-2179 (3517) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $45.83 | $45.16 | -$0.67 | 34% 460-894 (1354) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $31.56 | $31.96 | +$0.4 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $26.58 | $27.22 | +$0.63 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $17.81 | $16.02 | -$1.79 | 62% 265-160 (425) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.2¢ | $10.88 | $10.79 | -$0.09 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $4.76 | $4.76 | +$0 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $2 | $2.1 | +$0.1 | 48% 2518-2728 (5246) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $4.2 | $2 | -$2.2 | 52% 200-187 (387) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $1.6 | $1.57 | -$0.03 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.08 | $1.32 | +$0.24 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
Invested
$716.89
Value
$734.92
PnL
+$18.03
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$111.31
Value
$125.22
PnL
+$13.91
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$79.6
Value
$79.6
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1338-2179 (3517)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$45.83
Value
$45.16
PnL
-$0.67
Record
34%
460-894 (1354)
Invested
$31.56
Value
$31.96
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$26.58
Value
$27.22
PnL
+$0.63
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
Invested
$17.81
Value
$16.02
PnL
-$1.79
Record
62%
265-160 (425)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$10.79
PnL
-$0.09
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
2518-2728 (5246)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$2
PnL
-$2.2
Record
52%
200-187 (387)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$0.03
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.24
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.