Will US Salernitana win on 2026-11-15?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$236.44

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 68.5¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,551

Combined PnL+$233.07

No6 traders

Total Value$710.57

Total Shares1,382

Combined PnL+$3.38

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 52.4¢	$772.58	$843.43	+$70.85	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 69.5¢	$278	$292	+$14	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 31¢	$126.1	$288.81	+$162.71	16% 58-297 (355)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 32.4¢	$219.28	$196.45	-$22.83	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 69¢	$104.61	$110.68	+$6.06	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$78.9	$83.59	+$4.69	34% 465-896 (1361)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$21.64	$23.23	+$1.59	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.76	$4.63	-$0.13	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.03	$3.89	-$0.14	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.35	-$0.35	46% 972-1163 (2135)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$772.58

Value

$843.43

PnL

+$70.85

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$278

Value

$292

PnL

+$14

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$126.1

Value

$288.81

PnL

+$162.71

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$219.28

Value

$196.45

PnL

-$22.83

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$104.61

Value

$110.68

PnL

+$6.06

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$78.9

Value

$83.59

PnL

+$4.69

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$21.64

Value

$23.23

PnL

+$1.59

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.03

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.