Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Reggiana 1919 win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$155.09
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 83.8¢ | $764.56 | $912.48 | +$147.92 | 37% 964-1664 (2628) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $758.31 | $635.43 | -$122.88 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.6¢ | $397.48 | $635.43 | +$237.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $360.83 | — | -$360.83 | |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $61.32 | $81.82 | +$20.5 | 37% 972-1637 (2609) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $12.59 | $21.74 | +$9.15 | 55% 5370-4319 (9689) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $28.17 | — | -$28.17 | 37% 1030-1738 (2768) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.23 | $5.87 | +$2.64 | 36% 953-1669 (2622) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $2.98 | $5.74 | +$2.76 | 30% 340-779 (1119) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $2.22 | +$1 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 48% 2091-2257 (4348) |
Invested
$764.56
Value
$912.48
PnL
+$147.92
Record
37%
964-1664 (2628)
Invested
$758.31
Value
$635.43
PnL
-$122.88
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.32
Value
$81.82
PnL
+$20.5
Record
37%
972-1637 (2609)
RN1<$100Invested
$12.59
Value
$21.74
PnL
+$9.15
Record
55%
5370-4319 (9689)
Invested
$28.17
Value
—
PnL
-$28.17
Record
37%
1030-1738 (2768)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$2.64
Record
36%
953-1669 (2622)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$2.98
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$2.76
Record
30%
340-779 (1119)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$1
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
48%
2091-2257 (4348)