Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ravenna FC 1913 win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$113.49

Smart Money Entry

26.6¢ → 34¢

+28% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$630.56

Total Shares888

Combined PnL+$41.84

No9 traders

Total Value$860.89

Total Shares2,968

Combined PnL+$71.65

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$94.81	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$633.33	$590.73	-$42.59
└ No leg	Noavg 28¢	$405.41	$542.81	+$137.4
GA GamblingAddict12345	Yesavg 66¢	$495.95	$533.52	+$37.57	57% 62-47 (109)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 26¢	$369.91	$412.59	+$42.68	41% 166-237 (403)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 27¢	$237.5	$202.72	+$14.73	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 27.1¢	$175.23	$187.17	+$11.94	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 67.4¢	$74.27	$78.19	+$3.92	56% 656-516 (1172)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$29.76	$31.96	+$2.2	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$9.86	$9.75	-$0.11	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 70.6¢	$9.04	$9.09	+$0.05	63% 275-163 (438)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$6.86	$7.1	+$0.24	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$6.26	$6.63	+$0.37	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6	$5.8	-$0.2	34% 476-910 (1386)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.13	-$0.08	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$2.12	$2.28	+$0.16	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,038.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$94.81

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Invested

$495.95

Value

$533.52

PnL

+$37.57

Record

57%

62-47 (109)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$369.91

Value

$412.59

PnL

+$42.68

Record

41%

166-237 (403)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$237.5

Value

$202.72

PnL

+$14.73

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$175.23

Value

$187.17

PnL

+$11.94

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.27

Value

$78.19

PnL

+$3.92

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$31.96

PnL

+$2.2

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.11

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.05

Record

63%

275-163 (438)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.24

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.37

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.