Will Forli FC win on 2026-11-15?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 90¢ · $388 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$387.92
$17.81
89.7¢ → 89.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $93.03 | $92 | -$1.03 | 38% 1354-2217 (3571) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $88.96 | $69.32 | +$15.17 | 49% 4676-4943 (9619) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $44.45 | -$0.05 | 47% 1199-1376 (2575) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $43.28 | $42.33 | -$0.95 | 38% 1348-2243 (3591) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $40.38 | $39.49 | -$0.89 | 38% 1332-2185 (3517) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $33.11 | $38.51 | +$5.41 | 52% 2494-2286 (4780) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $34.8 | $33.6 | -$1.2 | 39% 1579-2471 (4050) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $14.96 | $14.78 | -$0.18 | 63% 275-163 (438) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $8.9 | $8.89 | -$0.01 | 35% 635-1160 (1795) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $3 | $4.55 | +$1.55 | 48% 2555-2763 (5318) |
Invested
$93.03
Value
$92
PnL
-$1.03
Record
38%
1354-2217 (3571)
Invested
$88.96
Value
$69.32
PnL
+$15.17
Record
49%
4676-4943 (9619)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
1199-1376 (2575)
Invested
$43.28
Value
$42.33
PnL
-$0.95
Record
38%
1348-2243 (3591)
Invested
$40.38
Value
$39.49
PnL
-$0.89
Record
38%
1332-2185 (3517)
Invested
$33.11
Value
$38.51
PnL
+$5.41
Record
52%
2494-2286 (4780)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$33.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
39%
1579-2471 (4050)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$14.78
PnL
-$0.18
Record
63%
275-163 (438)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$8.89
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
635-1160 (1795)
Invested
$3
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$1.55
Record
48%
2555-2763 (5318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.