Will ASD Pineto Calcio win on 2026-11-09?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$224.95
51.2¢ → 75¢
+47% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 51¢ | $465.37 | $707.94 | +$242.57 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 48.4¢ | $406.14 | $351.66 | -$54.48 | 52% 236-219 (455) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $168.89 | $246.19 | +$77.3 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.4¢ | $237.25 | $105.47 | -$131.78 | |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $124.61 | $122.81 | -$1.8 | 23% 45-152 (197) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $53.24 | $80.31 | +$3.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.6¢ | $89.84 | $42.5 | -$5.77 | |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $33.53 | $34.07 | +$0.54 | 18% 39-174 (213) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $30.96 | $14.25 | -$16.71 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $5.28 | $7.59 | +$2.17 | 47% 89-100 (189) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $4.34 | $4.43 | +$0.09 | 31% 60-136 (196) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $86.37 | $3.97 | +$0.16 | 53% 55-48 (103) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $6.76 | $2.91 | -$3.85 | 54% 230-196 (426) |
Invested
$465.37
Value
$707.94
PnL
+$242.57
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$406.14
Value
$351.66
PnL
-$54.48
Record
52%
236-219 (455)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.61
Value
$122.81
PnL
-$1.8
Record
23%
45-152 (197)
Both legs:
tradecraft<$100Invested
$33.53
Value
$34.07
PnL
+$0.54
Record
18%
39-174 (213)
Invested
$30.96
Value
$14.25
PnL
-$16.71
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
dips.<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$7.59
PnL
+$2.17
Record
47%
89-100 (189)
Invested
$4.34
Value
$4.43
PnL
+$0.09
Record
31%
60-136 (196)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$86.37
Value
$3.97
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
55-48 (103)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.76
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$3.85
Record
54%
230-196 (426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.