Will Delfino Pescara win on 2026-11-15?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$245.07

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 98.6¢

+42% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,578

Combined PnL+$353.4

No5 traders

Total Value$11.48

Total Shares512

Combined PnL-$108.33

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 76.7¢	$548.24	$624.15	+$75.9	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
NO Notradecopy	Yesavg 59¢	$315.22	$502.22	+$187	24% 66-206 (272)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 21.6¢	$275.4	$155.13	-$120.27	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 92.3¢	$106.08	$108.04	+$1.97
└ No leg	Noavg 21.6¢	$169.32	$47.09	-$122.24
tradecraft	Yesavg 64¢	$105.19	$154.5	+$49.31	34% 465-896 (1361)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 62.4¢	$73.04	$109.98	+$36.94	56% 651-514 (1165)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 94.6¢	$34.32	$35.74	+$1.42	46% 877-1027 (1904)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$26.32	$27.59	+$1.27	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$12.8	$12.53	-$0.27	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$11.28	$11.28	+$0	37% 490-820 (1310)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$10.34	$10.34	+$0	46% 972-1163 (2135)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$4.76	$6.58	+$1.82	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 6.2¢	$5.55	$5.4	-$0.15	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 32¢	$105.26	$4.28	-$100.98	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$4.06	$1.13	-$2.94	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$13.13	$0.61	-$2.52	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.07	-$1.74	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$548.24

Value

$624.15

PnL

+$75.9

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Notradecopy

Yes

Invested

$315.22

Value

$502.22

PnL

+$187

Record

24%

66-206 (272)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$275.4

Value

$155.13

PnL

-$120.27

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Yes$106.0892.3¢+$1.97

No$169.3221.6¢-$122.24

tradecraft

Yes

Invested

$105.19

Value

$154.5

PnL

+$49.31

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$109.98

PnL

+$36.94

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.32

Value

$35.74

PnL

+$1.42

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.32

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$1.27

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.53

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

SlickRick123<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

490-820 (1310)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.34

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$1.82

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$105.26

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$100.98

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$2.94

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$2.52

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.74

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.