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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will US Pianese win on 2026-11-14?

Resolved No. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$224.96

Combined PnL

$27.8

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders
Total Value$138.76
Total Shares139
Combined PnL+$46.92
Yes7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares76
Combined PnL-$19.11
No — 30%Yes — 70%
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100
Yes

Invested

$224.39

Value

$86.2

PnL

-$138.19

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

No$63.3273.5¢+$22.88
Yes$161.0747.6¢-$161.07
TO
topdogbigboi
No

Invested

$83.28

Value

$119.72

PnL

+$36.45

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

poshposh<$100
No

Invested

$6.32

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$7.72

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

LR
lryyy<$100
No

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

45%

810-993 (1803)

SE
sentrioCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$14.76

Value

—

PnL

-$14.76

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

RN1CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

—

PnL

-$1.39

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

tradecraftCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

—

PnL

-$2.62

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

LO
lonmi2511CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

60%

713-483 (1196)

GO
GoalLineGhostCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

—

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

VA
Vampiro1CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

—

PnL

+$0.17

Record

84%

204-39 (243)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x372b14d5...acab5a
Slug
serc-p98-pia-2026-11-14-pia

Traders in this Market

FL

Flaznorp

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$138.19
TO

topdogbigboi

No — $119.72

+$36.45

poshposh

No — $14.04

+$7.72
LR

lryyy

No — $5

+$2.75
SE

sentrio

CTR

Yes — $0

-$14.76

RN1

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.39

tradecraft

CTR

Yes — $0

-$2.62
0X

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.2
LO

lonmi2511

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.1
GO

GoalLineGhost

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.21
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