Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Vis Pesaro 1898 win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 47¢ · $737 held · ended Nov 14

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$737.45

Combined PnL

$2.16

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 47¢

-28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$263.97

Total Shares419

Combined PnL-$16.01

Yes5 traders

Total Value$321.67

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$18.17

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 72¢	$235.03	$226.87	-$8.16	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$127.69	$151.12	+$23.43	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.5¢	$119.96	$110.27	-$9.7
└ No leg	Noavg 7¢	$7.73	$40.85	+$33.12
RN1	Yesavg 80.7¢	$99	$109.81	+$10.81	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$90	$98.04	+$8.04	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 74.4¢	$87.29	$86.83	-$0.47	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$23.8	$23.63	-$0.18	47% 967-1091 (2058)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$36.85	$22.48	-$14.38	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$6.1	$11.15	+$5.05	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2	$3.47	+$1.47	45% 801-984 (1785)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.38	-$0.02	45% 653-812 (1465)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$235.03

Value

$226.87

PnL

-$8.16

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$127.69

Value

$151.12

PnL

+$23.43

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Invested

$99

Value

$109.81

PnL

+$10.81

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$98.04

PnL

+$8.04

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.29

Value

$86.83

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$36.85

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$14.38

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$11.15

PnL

+$5.05

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$1.47

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

45%

653-812 (1465)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.