Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Novara FC win on 2026-11-15?
Resolved No. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
No 73%
1 arb excluded
$777.86
-$10.67
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.9¢ | $443.47 | $399.68 | -$43.8 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
SM smithagent | Noavg 87¢ | $334.08 | $121.91 | +$9.77 | 46% 877-1027 (1904) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 69.8¢ | $72.18 | $103.34 | +$31.16 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $69.15 | $72.51 | +$3.36 | 34% 465-896 (1361) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $35.11 | $20.44 | -$14.67 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.9¢ | $15.11 | $20.44 | +$5.33 | |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $22.81 | $27 | +$4.19 | 37% 490-820 (1310) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $13.15 | $15.29 | +$2.14 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $48.84 | — | -$17.51 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $8.14 | $11 | +$2.86 | 46% 972-1163 (2135) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.75 | $6.69 | +$1.94 | 38% 1318-2168 (3486) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $3.09 | — | -$3.09 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 41% 1175-1673 (2848) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | — | +$0.65 | 83% 962-202 (1164) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $133 | — | +$0 | 64% 145-81 (226) |
Invested
$443.47
Value
$399.68
PnL
-$43.8
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$334.08
Value
$121.91
PnL
+$9.77
Record
46%
877-1027 (1904)
Invested
$72.18
Value
$103.34
PnL
+$31.16
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$69.15
Value
$72.51
PnL
+$3.36
Record
34%
465-896 (1361)
Invested
$35.11
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$14.67
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.81
Value
$27
PnL
+$4.19
Record
37%
490-820 (1310)
Invested
$13.15
Value
$15.29
PnL
+$2.14
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$48.84
Value
—
PnL
-$17.51
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$8.14
Value
$11
PnL
+$2.86
Record
46%
972-1163 (2135)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$6.69
PnL
+$1.94
Record
38%
1318-2168 (3486)
Invested
$3.09
Value
—
PnL
-$3.09
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
41%
1175-1673 (2848)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
—
PnL
+$0.65
Record
83%
962-202 (1164)
Invested
$133
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
145-81 (226)