Will Calcio Lecco 1912 win on 2026-11-15?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 77¢ · $986 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
1 arb excluded
$986.06
$17.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 46.7¢ | $778.2 | $872.45 | +$94.25 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.7¢ | $440.37 | $687.79 | +$247.42 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $337.83 | $184.66 | -$153.17 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 45.8¢ | $27.5 | $33.29 | +$5.79 | 39% 1554-2430 (3984) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $14.4 | $26 | +$11.6 | 34% 460-894 (1354) |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $20.09 | $20.73 | +$0.64 | 40% 152-227 (379) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.97 | $8.63 | +$0.66 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $23.58 | $6.5 | +$0 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $5.51 | $5.97 | +$0.46 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $4.32 | $4.76 | +$0.44 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $3.95 | $4.3 | +$0.36 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.4¢ | $35.58 | $3.4 | -$2.81 | 48% 2518-2728 (5246) |
Invested
$778.2
Value
$872.45
PnL
+$94.25
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.5
Value
$33.29
PnL
+$5.79
Record
39%
1554-2430 (3984)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$26
PnL
+$11.6
Record
34%
460-894 (1354)
Invested
$20.09
Value
$20.73
PnL
+$0.64
Record
40%
152-227 (379)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$8.63
PnL
+$0.66
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$23.58
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$5.97
PnL
+$0.46
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.44
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$35.58
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$2.81
Record
48%
2518-2728 (5246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.