Will AS Ostiamare win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 70¢ · $417 held · ended Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$416.55

Combined PnL

-$2.35

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 69.5¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$207.69

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$9.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96.11

Total Shares417

Combined PnL+$7.12

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$109.65	$112.75	+$3.1	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$85.39	$82.68	-$2.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$24.26	$30.07	+$5.81
LI Limousin	Noavg 78¢	$101.51	$95.05	-$6.46	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$68.27	$73.38	+$5.11	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 79¢	$61.98	$59.63	-$2.35	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 78¢	$28.82	$28.46	-$0.37	35% 628-1146 (1774)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$19.57	$21.38	+$1.81	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$15.03	$14.22	-$0.8	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.8	$6.58	+$0.77	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.02	$3.76	-$0.26	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.35	+$0.2	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$109.65

Value

$112.75

PnL

+$3.1

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

No$85.3971.8¢-$2.71

Yes$24.2624.6¢+$5.81

Limousin

Invested

$101.51

Value

$95.05

PnL

-$6.46

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.27

Value

$73.38

PnL

+$5.11

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$61.98

Value

$59.63

PnL

-$2.35

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$28.82

Value

$28.46

PnL

-$0.37

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.57

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$1.81

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$15.03

Value

$14.22

PnL

-$0.8

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.