Will Campobasso FC win on 2026-11-13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $934 held · ends Nov 13

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$934.2

Combined PnL

$13.36

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 72.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$735.39

Total Shares1,014

Combined PnL+$27.01

Yes4 traders

Total Value$198.81

Total Shares723

Combined PnL-$13.65

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 69.7¢	$666.32	$692.67	+$26.35	6% 17-277 (294)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$99.19	$89.65	-$9.54	56% 307-245 (552)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$79.2	$76.46	-$2.75	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$24.89	$25.42	+$0.53	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$19.56	$18.95	-$0.61	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 72¢	$16.16	$16.27	+$0.11	36% 761-1361 (2122)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$14.5	$13.75	-$0.75	26% 250-703 (953)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.01	$1.03	+$0.02	54% 1849-1555 (3404)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$666.32

Value

$692.67

PnL

+$26.35

Record

17-277 (294)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.19

Value

$89.65

PnL

-$9.54

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.2

Value

$76.46

PnL

-$2.75

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$24.89

Value

$25.42

PnL

+$0.53

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.56

Value

$18.95

PnL

-$0.61

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$16.27

PnL

+$0.11

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.5

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.