Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
AS Gubbio vs. US Grosseto: O/U 4.5
Resolved Over. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$198.89
-$31.94
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 78.9¢ | $119.09 | $104.92 | -$14.17 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78.9¢ | $82.77 | $104.92 | +$22.15 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 16.8¢ | $36.32 | — | -$36.32 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 77.6¢ | $75.08 | $88.97 | +$13.89 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 29.7¢ | $19.72 | — | -$19.72 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 21.9¢ | $13.15 | — | -$13.15 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $3.94 | — | -$3.94 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $8.32 | — | -$8.32 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 99% 480-7 (487) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $0.75 | — | -$0.75 | 45% 836-1013 (1849) |
Invested
$119.09
Value
$104.92
PnL
-$14.17
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.08
Value
$88.97
PnL
+$13.89
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$19.72
Value
—
PnL
-$19.72
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$13.15
Value
—
PnL
-$13.15
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$3.94
Value
—
PnL
-$3.94
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
Invested
$8.32
Value
—
PnL
-$8.32
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
99%
480-7 (487)
Invested
$0.75
Value
—
PnL
-$0.75
Record
45%
836-1013 (1849)