AS Gubbio vs. US Grosseto: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $704 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$704.34

Combined PnL

-$267.61

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 99.5¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$692.31

Total Shares696

Combined PnL+$56.29

Under6 traders

Total Value$12.03

Total Shares741

Combined PnL-$323.9

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$561	$563.84	+$2.83	99% 465-7 (472)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 57.7¢	$71.62	$123.45	+$51.83	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.4	$5.03	+$1.63	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$32.83	$4.69	-$28.14	36% 110-194 (304)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$26.63	$4.14	-$22.49	36% 443-803 (1246)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47¢	$261.28	$2.78	-$258.5	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$11.98	$0.26	-$11.72	37% 964-1664 (2628)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.13	-$0.72	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$0.03	-$2.33	37% 972-1637 (2609)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$561

Value

$563.84

PnL

+$2.83

Record

99%

465-7 (472)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$71.62

Value

$123.45

PnL

+$51.83

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$1.63

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.83

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$28.14

Record

36%

110-194 (304)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.63

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$22.49

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$261.28

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$258.5

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.98

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$11.72

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.33

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.