Will US Grosseto win on 2026-11-14?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 61¢ · $335 held · ended Nov 14

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$334.77

Combined PnL

$28.99

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 60.5¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$220.06

Total Shares288

Combined PnL+$33.26

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.92

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$4.27

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 33.4¢	$117.47	$108.79	-$8.68	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
└ No leg	Noavg 58¢	$49.3	$68	+$18.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.4¢	$68.17	$40.79	-$27.38
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 68¢	$62.78	$73.61	+$10.83	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 67¢	$37.33	$42.96	+$5.63	34% 370-706 (1076)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$31.38	$27.97	+$7.9	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 55¢	$14.71	$16.31	+$1.6	37% 964-1664 (2628)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 57¢	$12.44	$13.31	+$0.87	36% 953-1669 (2622)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$11.01	$13.09	+$2.08	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$6.55	$8	+$1.45	44% 377-472 (849)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.8	$8	+$2.2	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.5	$6.1	+$0.6	37% 972-1637 (2609)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.43	$5.53	+$0.1	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.18	$5.18	-$0	36% 443-803 (1246)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$4.86	$2.26	-$2.6	30% 340-779 (1119)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.1	-$0.15	45% 659-820 (1479)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.15	$1	-$1.15	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$0.98	-$0.32	45% 810-993 (1803)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.63	$0.58	-$0.05	38% 550-886 (1436)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$117.47

Value

$108.79

PnL

-$8.68

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

No$49.358¢+$18.7

Yes$68.1733.4¢-$27.38

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$62.78

Value

$73.61

PnL

+$10.83

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$37.33

Value

$42.96

PnL

+$5.63

Record

34%

370-706 (1076)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$31.38

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$7.9

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$14.71

Value

$16.31

PnL

+$1.6

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.44

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$0.87

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$11.01

Value

$13.09

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

44%

377-472 (849)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.86

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$2.6

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

45%

659-820 (1479)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

PnL

-$1.15

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.32

Record

45%

810-993 (1803)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.