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UnderUnder
dips.CTR<$100UnderOverUnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Giugliano Calcio 1928 vs. AC Savoia 1908: O/U 3.5
Resolved Over. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$164.72
Combined PnL
-$135.48
Smart Money Signal
Under
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares462
Combined PnL-$140.53
Over1 trader
Total Value$18.06
Total Shares18
Combined PnL+$5.06
Under — 83%Over — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 37.6¢ | $652.88 | $146.66 | -$506.22 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37.6¢ | $531.16 | — | -$531.16 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 83¢ | $121.73 | $146.66 | +$24.93 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 24.9¢ | $87.54 | — | -$87.54 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
dips.CTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $36.86 | — | -$34.06 | 48% 1300-1386 (2686) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $13 | $18.06 | +$5.06 | 41% 725-1037 (1762) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 37.9¢ | $18.04 | — | -$11.9 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $3.61 | — | -$3.61 | 37% 1336-2230 (3566) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $3.42 | — | -$3.42 | 46% 877-1027 (1904) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$652.88
Value
$146.66
PnL
-$506.22
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Both legs:
Under$531.1637.6¢-$531.16
Over$121.7383¢+$24.93
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$87.54
Value
—
PnL
-$87.54
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$36.86
Value
—
PnL
-$34.06
Record
48%
1300-1386 (2686)
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100Invested
$13
Value
$18.06
PnL
+$5.06
Record
41%
725-1037 (1762)
FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100Invested
$18.04
Value
—
PnL
-$11.9
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$3.61
Value
—
PnL
-$3.61
Record
37%
1336-2230 (3566)
SM
smithagentCTR<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
—
PnL
-$3.42
Record
46%
877-1027 (1904)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4a0ae6dd...f97ac4
Slug
serc-giu-sav-2026-11-15-total-3pt5