Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AC Savoia 1908 win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$93.4

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 35¢

-46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$387.71

Total Shares585

Combined PnL+$170.44

No7 traders

Total Value$394.88

Total Shares1,014

Combined PnL-$263.83

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 46.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$156.74	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.1¢	$633.04	$845.1	+$212.07
└ No leg	Noavg 43.7¢	$466.86	$411.54	-$55.32
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 35¢	$192.33	$359.93	+$167.6	16% 58-297 (355)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 65.3¢	$314.44	$184.45	-$124.15	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 65¢	$121.8	$73.08	-$48.72	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 65¢	$102.14	$61.28	-$40.86	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$25.63	$23.54	-$2.09	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$41.77	$21.82	-$19.95	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$41.17	$21.33	+$2.2	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$37.69	$19.69	-$18	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$21.09	$11.02	-$10.07	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$5.81	$6.44	+$0.63	49% 1306-1379 (2685)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,099.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$156.74

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

Yes$633.0446.1¢+$212.07

No$466.8643.7¢-$55.32

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$192.33

Value

$359.93

PnL

+$167.6

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$314.44

Value

$184.45

PnL

-$124.15

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$121.8

Value

$73.08

PnL

-$48.72

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$102.14

Value

$61.28

PnL

-$40.86

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$25.63

Value

$23.54

PnL

-$2.09

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$41.77

Value

$21.82

PnL

-$19.95

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.17

Value

$21.33

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$37.69

Value

$19.69

PnL

-$18

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$11.02

PnL

-$10.07

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.81

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.