Will AS Cittadella win on 2026-11-15?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $778 held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$777.54

Combined PnL

-$9.69

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 84.5¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$649.64

Total Shares1,036

Combined PnL-$10.8

Yes4 traders

Total Value$127.9

Total Shares823

Combined PnL+$1.1

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 85¢	$492.21	$495.1	+$2.9	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$101.27	$101.39	+$0.12	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 28.4¢	$87.7	$75.78	-$11.92	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$26.55	$30.96	+$4.4	35% 635-1160 (1795)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$18.15	$17.38	-$0.77	41% 739-1047 (1786)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$16.69	$17.25	+$0.56	59% 747-512 (1259)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$22.9	$14.81	-$1.57	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 66¢	$15.72	$12.28	-$3.44	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$4.32	$4.75	+$0.43	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$4.52	$4.52	+$0	63% 275-163 (438)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 25¢	$2.13	$2.08	-$0.04	34% 476-910 (1386)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.25	-$0.35	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

SnakeBall

Invested

$492.21

Value

$495.1

PnL

+$2.9

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.27

Value

$101.39

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$87.7

Value

$75.78

PnL

-$11.92

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$26.55

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$4.4

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$18.15

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$0.77

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.69

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$0.56

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$22.9

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$1.57

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$12.28

PnL

-$3.44

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

275-163 (438)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.04

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.