Will Audace Cerignola vs. Inter Milano U23 end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.66

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 98.7¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL+$28.03

No4 traders

Total Value$34.13

Total Shares2,528

Combined PnL-$27.36

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dip.	Yesavg 98.4¢	$560.97	$562.46	+$1.49	—
GO gotozer0	Yesavg 98.4¢	$467.38	$468.59	+$1.21	—
LO looppau<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$35.37	$60.61	+$25.24	100% 47-0 (47)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$27.11	$16.88	-$10.24	32% 2904-6246 (9150)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$16.24	$7.56	-$8.68	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$12.18	$5.67	-$6.51	81% 60-14 (74)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 96.8¢	$4.19	$4.27	+$0.08	41% 3167-4511 (7678)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$5.96	$4.02	-$1.94	13% 28-183 (211)

dip.

Yes

Invested

$560.97

Value

$562.46

PnL

+$1.49

Record

—

gotozer0

Yes

Invested

$467.38

Value

$468.59

PnL

+$1.21

Record

—

looppau<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.37

Value

$60.61

PnL

+$25.24

Record

100%

47-0 (47)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$27.11

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$10.24

Record

32%

2904-6246 (9150)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$16.24

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$8.68

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$6.51

Record

81%

60-14 (74)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

3167-4511 (7678)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$1.94

Record

13%

28-183 (211)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.