Will Audace Cerignola win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.3K
-$4.97
98.2¢ → 97.7¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 98.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$3.89 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.9¢ | $548.24 | $548.8 | +$0.56 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
ME merod | Noavg 98¢ | $411.6 | $411.6 | +$0 | 81% 54-13 (67) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $89.91 | $88.29 | -$1.62 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.88 | -$0.02 | 44% 423-534 (957) |
Invested
$1,228.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$3.89
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$548.24
Value
$548.8
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Invested
$411.6
Value
$411.6
PnL
+$0
Record
81%
54-13 (67)
Invested
$89.91
Value
$88.29
PnL
-$1.62
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
423-534 (957)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.