Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cavese 1919 win on 2026-11-15?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 23¢ · $437 held · ended Nov 15

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$436.85

Combined PnL

$67.77

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 22.5¢

-51% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$254.82

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$67.67

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.45

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.1

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$181.01	$175.57	-$5.43	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.7¢	$71.44	$119.08	+$47.64
└ No leg	Noavg 49.5¢	$109.57	$56.5	-$53.07
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 53.8¢	$95.44	$118.88	+$23.44	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$24.12	$38.47	+$14.35	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$14.03	$26.16	+$12.13	37% 490-820 (1310)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$13.58	$22.75	+$9.17	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$8	$13.4	+$5.4	46% 877-1027 (1904)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$5.19	$13.39	+$8.19	34% 465-896 (1361)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$14.94	$7.47	-$7.47	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$3.75	$6.7	+$2.95	46% 972-1163 (2135)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$11.08	$6.45	+$0.1	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$2.9	$4.91	+$2.01	46% 472-559 (1031)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$9.8	$2.7	-$2.5	53% 1889-1648 (3537)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$181.01

Value

$175.57

PnL

-$5.43

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Yes$71.4444.7¢+$47.64

No$109.5749.5¢-$53.07

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$95.44

Value

$118.88

PnL

+$23.44

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$24.12

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$14.35

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$26.16

PnL

+$12.13

Record

37%

490-820 (1310)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$13.58

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$9.17

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$5.4

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

$13.39

PnL

+$8.19

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$7.47

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$2.95

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.08

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$2.01

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.