Will Calcio Foggia win on 2026-11-09?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$407.15

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 92.5¢

+66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,708

Combined PnL+$566.72

Yes5 traders

Total Value$103.46

Total Shares844

Combined PnL-$159.57

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 55.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$565.78	1% 1-140 (141)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.0K	$851.39	-$191.04	52% 236-219 (455)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.3¢	$436.85	$594.49	+$157.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$605.58	$256.9	-$348.68
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$406.78	$44	-$132	53% 55-48 (103)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$47.73	$42.95	-$4.77	50% 32-32 (64)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 81¢	$11.69	$12.63	+$0.94	19% 35-146 (181)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$70.95	$9.58	-$21.62	18% 39-174 (213)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.5	$6.25	-$1.25	38% 88-145 (233)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$0.6	$0.68	+$0.08	31% 60-136 (196)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$1,693.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$565.78

Record

1-140 (141)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,042.43

Value

$851.39

PnL

-$191.04

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

Both legs:

No$436.8564.3¢+$157.64

Yes$605.5829.5¢-$348.68

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$406.78

Value

$44

PnL

-$132

Record

53%

55-48 (103)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$47.73

Value

$42.95

PnL

-$4.77

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$11.69

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$0.94

Record

19%

35-146 (181)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.95

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$21.62

Record

18%

39-174 (213)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.