Will Calcio Foggia win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $546 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$545.69
$42.79
84.8¢ → 98.1¢
+16% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | Noavg 83¢ | $150.44 | $179.59 | +$29.16 | 30% 340-779 (1119) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 84¢ | $146.75 | $145 | -$1.75 | 37% 964-1664 (2628) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $59.9 | $71.48 | +$11.58 | 36% 937-1647 (2584) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $64.54 | $66.54 | +$2 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $57.98 | $58.69 | +$0.72 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $10.3 | $10.43 | +$0.13 | 55% 469-381 (850) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $6.14 | $7.33 | +$1.19 | 36% 953-1669 (2622) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.8¢ | $4.76 | $4.53 | -$0.23 | 46% 2679-3158 (5837) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $2.08 | $2.08 | -$0 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
tradecraftInvested
$150.44
Value
$179.59
PnL
+$29.16
Record
30%
340-779 (1119)
Invested
$146.75
Value
$145
PnL
-$1.75
Record
37%
964-1664 (2628)
Invested
$59.9
Value
$71.48
PnL
+$11.58
Record
36%
937-1647 (2584)
Invested
$64.54
Value
$66.54
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
Invested
$57.98
Value
$58.69
PnL
+$0.72
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
Invested
$10.3
Value
$10.43
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
469-381 (850)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$1.19
Record
36%
953-1669 (2622)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.23
Record
46%
2679-3158 (5837)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.