Will SSC Bari win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 94¢ · $461 held · ended Nov 14

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$461.29

Combined PnL

-$8.82

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 94¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$436.06

Total Shares579

Combined PnL+$10.6

No4 traders

Total Value$25.19

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$19.42

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 85.8¢	$247.2	$256.65	+$9.45	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$81.26	$82.74	+$1.48	20% 48-193 (241)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 56.4¢	$73.36	$72.8	-$0.56	55% 469-381 (850)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$16.8	$13.79	+$0.11	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$3.53	$9.61	+$6.08	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$8.81	$8.97	+$0.16	53% 41-37 (78)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 23.3¢	$25.93	$7.24	-$18.69	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$6.41	$6.41	+$0	37% 964-1664 (2628)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$8.73	$1.92	-$6.81	37% 972-1637 (2609)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$1.14	$1.1	-$0.04	46% 2679-3158 (5837)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$247.2

Value

$256.65

PnL

+$9.45

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Notradecopy<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.26

Value

$82.74

PnL

+$1.48

Record

20%

48-193 (241)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.36

Value

$72.8

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.8

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$6.08

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$25.93

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$18.69

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.41

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$6.81

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.