Will ASD Pineto Calcio win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
-$10.05
98.3¢ → 98.9¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$16.5 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
ME merod | Noavg 95.7¢ | $401.94 | $411.18 | +$9.24 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.9¢ | $200.69 | $200.69 | +$0 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99¢ | $128.7 | $127.27 | -$1.43 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $3.41 | $2.05 | -$1.36 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
Invested
$1,485
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$16.5
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
Invested
$401.94
Value
$411.18
PnL
+$9.24
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$200.69
Value
$200.69
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$128.7
Value
$127.27
PnL
-$1.43
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.41
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$1.36
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.