Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Atalanta BC U23 vs. Vis Pesaro 1898: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 41¢ · $528 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$527.73
$66.33
36.1¢ → 40.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR | Underavg 36¢ | $227.58 | $313.34 | +$85.75 | 60% 859-570 (1429) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 61.2¢ | $122.48 | $118.98 | -$3.5 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 62.1¢ | $48.55 | $41.51 | -$7.03 | 58% 28122-20727 (48849) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $47.96 | $39.71 | -$8.26 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.2¢ | $6.5 | $6.72 | +$0.22 | 53% 3050-2712 (5762) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $6.13 | $4.99 | -$1.14 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.48 | +$0.27 | 36% 14863-26977 (41840) |
Invested
$227.58
Value
$313.34
PnL
+$85.75
Record
60%
859-570 (1429)
VeryLucky888Invested
$122.48
Value
$118.98
PnL
-$3.5
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
Invested
$48.55
Value
$41.51
PnL
-$7.03
Record
58%
28122-20727 (48849)
Invested
$47.96
Value
$39.71
PnL
-$8.26
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
3050-2712 (5762)
Invested
$6.13
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$1.14
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.27
Record
36%
14863-26977 (41840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.