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NoNoYes
poshposhCTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will FC Arzignano Valchiampo vs. Alcione Milano end in a draw?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 67%
Total Value
$68.78
Combined PnL
-$82.08
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$68.78
Total Shares69
Combined PnL+$24.69
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares475
Combined PnL-$106.77
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $30.55 | $49.78 | +$19.23 | 37% 1030-1738 (2768) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $13.54 | $19 | +$5.46 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $95.55 | — | -$95.55 | 49% 3844-4007 (7851) |
poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.68 | — | -$0.68 | 48% 1130-1207 (2337) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $25.6 | — | -$10.5 | 25% 1317-3971 (5288) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.04 | — | -$0.04 | 53% 7092-6207 (13299) |
TO
topdogbigboi<$100Invested
$30.55
Value
$49.78
PnL
+$19.23
Record
37%
1030-1738 (2768)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$13.54
Value
$19
PnL
+$5.46
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100Invested
$95.55
Value
—
PnL
-$95.55
Record
49%
3844-4007 (7851)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.68
Value
—
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
1130-1207 (2337)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$25.6
Value
—
PnL
-$10.5
Record
25%
1317-3971 (5288)
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
—
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
7092-6207 (13299)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5c8ea031...58fdd2
Slug
serc-arz-alc-2026-11-14-draw